Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Largely Ineffective

Recent Russian attempts at advancing further into Eastern Ukraine are reported as being "largely ineffective". The phrase is deceptively undramatic, but it means that Russia has all but lost the war.

An ineffective attack causes losses. Lots of ineffective attacks cause plenty of losses. We should also keep in mind that the forces Russia are using in Ukraine at the moment are their best equipped, best trained, and most experienced troops. Any reinforcements they could send at this point would be nothing but cannon fodder when pitted against the experienced Ukrainian defenders.

Russia is running on empty. They still have people to throw at the front, but those people are badly motivated, exhausted, unskilled, put under incompetent command and suffering greatly from damaged equipment and dwindling supplies. What's left is a slow war of attrition that Russia is going to lose.

When, or if, Putin is going to realise this is anybody's guess, and it's impossible to know how he will react.