The invasion of Ukraine is a massive failure for Russia. Ukrainian forces are pushing back in the north and near Odessa, and they are facing weak opposition from Russian forces that choose to retreat from badly fortified positions. In the Donbass region where Russia is trying to mount an offense, their advances are slow at best, nonexistent for the most part, and sometimes counterproductive, forcing them to retreat and surrender territory due to losses and insufficient defence capabilities rather than make further advances.
Ukraine is on their home turf, defending their freedom and pushing back against a hostile invasion. Russia is forcing battle-weary and unmotivated troops to die for various small pieces of land that they don't even have enough resources to hold. Even their scaled-down goal of taking the city of Severodonetsk now seems out of reach for the depleted Russian army, and Ukraine is now seriously considering taking back not only the Donbass region, but Crimea as well. Whether that will happen is more of a political decision than a military one.
Ukraine now has the initiative in the conflict, and they will keep it.
