In Tatters

Putin's move to enlist allegedly hundreds of thousands of former soldiers into active duty, to reinforce his heavily depleted forces in Ukraine, is an act of desperation. Russians do not want to fight in Putin's failing war against their brothers and sisters in Ukraine, and it is highly doubtful if he can even muster any significant amount of battle ready troops in the near future. Many of the men who are now receiving draft orders have no military experience, and the Russian army will face severe problems and long delays when trying to train them, outfit them and organize them into functioning units. They had problems keeping even their standing army equipped with reasonably modern and functional gear, and adding hundreds of thousands of new recruits to the mix will spell disaster.

Putin will see his reinforcements arrive in much smaller numbers than he needs, and they will be too late to stop Ukraine's pushback against his aggression. When he finally manages to send some troops, they will be badly trained, badly equipped and badly motivated, sent into battle only to die by the thousands for a lost cause in a war that has gone horribly wrong from the beginning.

What we are seeing is the desperate act of a madman who is out of options but refuses to admit defeat.

Russophobia

In his predictably lie-filled and deranged address at the UN headquarters yesterday, Sergei Lavrov accused the Western world of russophobia. That might have been the only thing he got at least almost right.

Now, the term "phobia" usually refers to an unfounded fear of something, either due to a psychological disorder, like claustrophobia, or a misinformed opinion, like xenophobia. However, the word is Greek and literally means "fear", plain and simple.

The world is right to fear Russia. Not only is the Russian leadership to be feared, because Putin is not the only madman with crazy delusions about reclaiming the former territory of the Soviet Union to create "Novorossija", New Russia.

Strictly speaking, the Russian population at large is complicit in all this, because they have allowed a madman to remain in power for the past twenty years. So, yes, Russia and the Russians are to be feared, and loathed. They cannot be trusted as a group and as a country, and far too many of them are murderous thugs who are actively involved in torturing and killing innocent people by the thousands in Ukraine.

Russophobia is not wrong. It is a very wise and perfectly sane reaction to what Russia is doing, and it will take a very long time for decent Russians to restore normal relations with the rest of the world. When you look at it, Russia has actually never had normal relations with other countries, so it will be an uphill struggle indeed.

Therefore, Mr. Lavrov, until Russia changes dramatically for the better, I will stick with my russophobia.

Quote

Today, the UK Ministry of Defence released a statement that is worth quoting verbatim. Essentially, what it says is that the Russian air force sucks ("pilots' situational awareness is often low")and is taking such heavy losses that it is largely ineffective ("attempts to provide close air support", "continued lack of air superiority"). Here's the full quote:

Russia has highly likely lost at least four combat jets in Ukraine within the last 10 days, taking its attrition to approximately 55 since the start of the invasion.

There is a realistic possibility that this uptick in losses is partially a result of the Russian Air Force accepting greater risk as it attempts to provide close air support to Russian ground forces under pressure from Ukrainian advances.

Russian pilots’ situational awareness is often poor; there is a realistic possibility that some aircraft have strayed over enemy territory and into denser air defence zones as the front lines have moved rapidly.

Russia’s continued lack of air superiority remains one of the most important factors underpinning the fragility of its operational design in Ukraine.

 
The Russian operational design is fragile. Let's hope it shatters, along with any hope they have of ever going back to ruling the region that was once the Soviet Union. The world is moving on, while Russia is looking backwards to try to find relevance. They will not succeed.

Denial

The Russian "counterinformation" strategy has now deteriorated to the point where they just deny everything. Anything being reported from Ukraine that is unfavorable for the Russian side is simply dismissed as "lies".

In short, journalists from the entire world are fabricating stories of Russian war crimes, with extensive photo and video documentation, to make them look bad, and only the Russians are telling the truth.

Yeah, right. Are even the most gullible people inside Russia buying this?

What? Who?

As Russian forces flee large swaths of previously held territory in northern Ukraine, we see the horrendous pattern from north of Kyiv repeat itself. Torture chambers. Mass graves filled with unnamed victims, most of them bearing signs of torture and abuse. Reports about deportations, disappearances and random arrests without reason. Terror and threats by Russian forces to keep the "liberated" Ukrainians in the "denazified" regions in check. People in recaptured cities greeting Ukrainian forces with cheers and flowers.

So, President Putin, please remind us: Who are the Nazis in this conflict?

Recipe for disaster

Evil people across the world have found a way to destroy democracies from within: pander to stupid people. Tell stupid people lies that provide simple but wrong answers to complicated questions, and tell stupid people that whatever they wrongly believe without evidence, just because it makes them feel good about themselves, is a valid opinion even though it contradicts what an overwhelming majority of intelligent people have concluded is right.

Yes, I am saying that intelligent people generally know better than stupid people how to run a country, just like they know pretty much anything  better than stupid people. That's what intelligence is, per definition: the ability to think hard about complicated matters, learn the facts and understand how things actually work, instead of jumping to conclusions based on nothing but a gut feeling, or something their equally uninformed friends are saying, or prejudice, or envy, or hate.

The only saving grace is that the parties start out as a small group of evil people with a dastardly plan to attract stupid voters to gain power, but when they succeed, they need to find candidates for all the political representation they get, and as these parties grow they tend to get an increasing amount of stupid people as candidates. They end up building a house of cards, because in the long run a party of stupid people will not even succeed in making other stupid people happy with their incompetent rule.

Fortunately, evil people with a brain seem to be a small minority, and they can't even find enough of their own kind to run their political party if it grows to become a major player in national politics. Unfortunately, before these parties fail miserably and are destroyed by their own incompetence, they can do a lot of damage to a country, to its people, to people in other countries, and to the planet. In some cases, that damage is irreparable.

Ruling a country is a difficult task, perhaps the most difficult one there is. It is a job that requires at least a reasonable level of intelligence, and demonstrably stupid people are simply not fit for it. Those who cannot be bothered to seek information, to think, and to find actual working solutions, should not be in charge of anything, least of all an entire country. History is full of examples of stupid leaders, and their reigns always end in disaster.

I hope for the influence of the SD party in Sweden to be short and disastrous. Disastrous to them, not to the country.

Defanged

Without diminishing the suffering Russia is causing in Ukraine since they invaded in February, it is obvious that the once feared Russian army is now incapable of waging war in an effective manner. The troops are badly trained, badly equipped, badly motivated and badly led. Add to this a deeply dysfunctional organization with rampant corruption, internal struggles for power and a fundamental disregard for the lives of their soldiers, and what we see is not an army, but a ragtag gang of murderous thugs with no leadership and no plan.

Russia has been fighting with everything they've got for months, attacking what they thought was an easy target. The result? They are bleeding resources, barely holding on to territory at the edges of Ukraine, and as the counterattack is picking up speed, Ukraine is slowly but steadily taking back territory, causing heavy losses for Russia to equipment and personnel.

To put ot simply: the war is going badly for Russia, and their army comes across as outdated, outsmarted and way too easily outmanouvered.

Cracking Under Pressure

The ongoing counter-offensive by Ukraine, wisely focusing on Cherson, has caught Russian forces by surprise and appears to be quite effective. Russian troops seem unprepared, under-equipped, badly trained and unmotivated, and the pinpoint strikes against Russian ammunition depots and support lines have rendered Putin's machinery of terror severely crippled.

Our support for Ukraine must not falter. Russia is getting their ass kicked, and defeating the aggressor is paramount to stopping Russia from going on a mad killing spree to conquer more territory. The world needs to say "no" with as much force as we can possibly muster.

Political commentators are saying that Russia must not be humiliated, because it would make them vengeful. To the contrary, I think Russia must be beaten to humiliation and beyond, have their teeth pulled out and never again be trusted. The monster that has been ravaging Ukraine must not be allowed to continue its killing spree. Hurting the feelings of a murderer should not be a concern. The current regime in Russia has shown its true nature, and it does not deserve our respect.