Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Three to One

Vladimir Putin tried to spin his terrain losses in Ukraine as if it involved "devastating losses" of Ukrainian forces and materiel. The problem with his messaging is that he doesn't even try to support his own lies. He bragged about Russia having lost only 54 tanks, while Ukraine lost 160. These numbers are probably heavily inflated, but even if they are true, they do not represent anything abnormal in an attack against fortified positions. It is common to assume that you need an advantage in numbers of three to one to pull off an attack of the kind that Ukraine is now making, and the reason is simple: you must be prepared for significantly higher losses than the people who have had months to dig trenches and fortify their positions. Losing 160 tanks to take out 54 tanks, if the numbers are true, is simply par for the course and a sign of success. The actual numbers are likely a lot less depressing for Ukraine and a lot more dire for Russia, but it's quite telling that by now, not even Putin's lies are bad news for his enemy.

What's more relevant than counting losses is to look at the advances that Ukraine is actually making on the battlefield. They have pierced several long stretches of the front, and sent unprepared and untrained Russian troops fleeing in disarray. In some places the Russian troops retreated through their own mine fields, with lethal result.

Russia is losing. The impact on the position of the front will be slow at first, but the reality on the ground is that after just a couple of days of fighting, Russia is abandoning fortified positions where they have spent months lying in wait, preparing for this attack. The losses are indeed devastating, but not for Ukraine.