Monday, January 2, 2023

Impotent

There is one word that describes Russia and Vladimir Putin quite accurately, and that word is "impotent". Putin himself would likely take that as a personal attack on his sexual performance, but what I mean is the general meaning of the word: an inability to perform as expected, a lack of power.

Russia is now dependent on Iranian drones for most of their long range attacks against Ukraine - drones that are entirely dependent on Western-made components that need to be smuggled into Iran by seemingly civilian contractors. There is reason to believe that the supply of those components is scarce, and dwindling as Iran sells more and more of their drones to Russia.

Russia is quickly running through its stockpile of artillery ammunition, and despite Putin's insistence that his "operation" is proceeding with undiminished force, the intense artillery bombardment has been reduced to one third of what it was a couple of months ago. It is likely that the ammunition is being rationed to last longer. How much longer is anyone's guess, but we would not see this reduction of artillery fire if Russia had comfortable amounts of ammunition in stock, or was able to produce it rapidly.

By the look of it, after being more or less cut off from their supply of essential Western-made components, Russia can no longer manufacture advanced weapons like missiles, aircraft, war ships and tanks, at least not fast enough, and not in the numbers that would be required to replenish their huge losses in Ukraine.

The soldiers that are now being deployed on the battlefield in Ukraine are badly trained and unmotivated, and the leadership in the Russian army is largely defunct after decades of corruption.

Vladimir Putin is dependent on lies to maintain his grip on power, and the lies are getting more transparent with each public announcement he makes. A significant number of well educated Russians has already fled the country.

Putin is out of options. He can keep up the appearance of power for a while longer, but his actions have no chance of causing the desired effect. He is, in a word, impotent.