Ratings

Amidst all the tragedy with Ukraine, it feels petty to report on credit ratings for Russia, but any bad news for the aggressor is a light in the darkness. Their national credit rating from the strangely named institute "Standard and Poor's", S&P for short, was just reduced from CCC- to CC. The scale is rather weird with ten steps from best to worst: AAA, AA, A, BBB, BB, B, CCC, CC, C and D. D means "bankrupt, dysfunctional economy, expect no return on investments", basically a gravestone, while C means "bankruptcy virtually certain", a mark of death and a rating nobody is expected to be able to improve. Russia is now just one step above that, and foreign investors are jumping ship as fast as they can - with the notable exception that Chinese companies have been "encouraged" by the Chinese government to increase their presence in Russia, to "take opportunity of the many business opportunities that are now opening up". It remains to be seen whether the Chinese government means to help Russia, or aims to exploit their weakness in the wake of the sanctions and the huge cost of the failed war. In either case, China can't prop up the failing Russian economy all by itself, and Russia has some very rough times ahead.

A country who recently had illusions of getting back into the illustrious group of the world's largest economies called G8 (now G7 with Russia out) is on the verge of bankruptcy, all because of one man's greed and lust for power. If the situation in Ukraine wasn't so horrific because of Russia's invasion, I would call for a celebration. Now, let's just try to find some small comfort in the fact that war crimes don't seem to pay.

Numbers

The numbers are starting to leak out. Putin's aggression against Ukraine is of course devastating to the country being invaded and its population, but the Russian forces are being slaughtered in the process. The Ukrainean army has more people, better support, and above all better motivation. Ill prepared Russian soldiers who are increasingly starting to question the utility in dying for a lost cause are up against well trained and well equipped locals with a relentless determination to defend their homeland.

The Russians have been stopped, they are cut off from their supply lines, and they may soon find themselves not only outnumbered, but surrounded. Russia appears to be losing. Who would have thought that? Definitely not Vladimir Putin.

A Grave Mistake

Russia is losing the war they started in Ukraine. Russian forces are holding less territory than a few days ago, and they are fighting on empty stomachs and with nothing to gain, with failing support and dwindling reserves, while suffering catastrophic losses. A fight that was planned to be over in a few days is now running into its fourth week without any end in sight.

Putin has made a grave mistake, and he must know it. His attempts at saving face even in front of his own people are failing, even though he tries to make his own propaganda the only source of information. If Russians are ever going to be allowed more or less open access to the Internet again, his lies will be exposed even to his most fervent supporters. He has no way out of this except through what for him is an unthinkable and intolerable humiliation: to admit defeat and stand down. However, a malignant narcissisist is mentally unable to do that, no matter what the alternative might be. It's hard to see an end to this war unless Putin is somehow taken out of the equation by force.

Hoping for that to happen might be futile, but it's really the only hope I can find right now.

Consolidation

Against the background of the tightening totalitarian situation in Russia, there is a dsicussion about how Putin has "consolidated his position of absolute power" in the past 20 years and is therefore untouchable. To a certain degree, that is certainly true. Nobody in Putin's inner circle is likely to turn against him.

However, the people who are left in the upper levels of Russian leadership are either people who are in it for their own gain, or yes-men who actually believe the official Russian propaganda. Neither of those two kinds of people are useful when you want to run a country.

Unless, of course, you want to run the country into the ground. Then both those kinds of people are extremely efficient as leaders.

When this is over, and it looks as if that is going to happen sooner rather than later, Russia is not likely to return as a player in the international arena. Not politically, not economically, not socially, not in sports, not in any relevant manner whatsoever. Russia stands alone, and those who fall alone fall hard.

Hunger

We are getting credible reports about China sending food to Russian troops. Food. Analysts talk about this as a way of "providing aid to the military without providing military aid", but what we should focus on is the sad fact that such aid is even needed. Putin's miscalculations and his lack of connection to reality has now gone so far that his regime is unable to provide even the most basic support for the army he sent into Ukraine, and it should be rather obvious that the Russian soldiers are not welcomed as liberators if they can't even find food.

Successful military leaders know that an army needs to be fed to march and to fight. A starving army is a losing army. Putin's hunger for power means little to his soldiers, and even less when real hunger sets in. The news that Putin needs help from China to feed his own troops in a campaign of his own planning and execution is a sign of weakness, a sign of incompetence, a sign of disrespect for his troops and disregard for the fundamental requirements of warfare.

Asking China for help with weapons and settling for help with food is also a sign of desperation. Putin is out of friends, out of options, and out of time. Judgment may be imminent, and it will be harsh.

Low stamina

As the horrific war in Ukraine continues with fierce and successful resistance from the brave people of the invaded country, it becomes apparent that the Russian forces were unprepared for a drawn-out fight, and that they are struggling to maintain their fighting ability. They are low on ammunition, low on fuel, low on every kind of supplies, and the support lines are insufficient, sometimes apparently absent entirely. Morale is low, and the will to fight is dwindling. Vehicles and equipment in full fighting condition are being abandoned by the roadside because they run out of fuel, which of course depletes the already thinning resources even more for Putin's army.

A telling incident is that a missile launcher vehicle worth millions was abandoned for spontaneously ruptured tires. Upon closer inspection, the tires were long past their date of expiry, having sat on a parked vehicle for way too long without replacement. This might be an oversight on behalf of incompetent leadership in the Russian army, or it might be a case of some corrupt person in the organization having skimmed the funds for new tires for personal profit, rendering millions of Euro worth of equipment inoperable in order to grift a few thousand for themselves. The vehicle would still have fared okay in a parade on a paved road, but hitting the dirt in countryside Ukraine made several tires burst in a matter of hours, to the point where the vehicle was stuck in the mud and unable to move without help -- help that was not available.

The Russian army was clearly counting on a swift operation and a quick victory from a devastating first strike. With the war now in its third week, it is apparent that neither the organization in 'Battalion Tactical Groups' nor the morale and conviction of the personnel were anywhere near in shape to take on fierce resistance in a prolonged fight. Reports of catastrophic Russian losses and mass defections from Russian ranks deserve to be taken seriously. Add to this that Putin is now asking his few and weak allies, like Syria, to send troops for reinforcements, and we see a clear picture of desperation.

Now, a desperate Putin is unnerving, but it's far better than a victorious Putin. We can only hope for this campaign to be drawn out long enough for his armed forces to collapse from depletion, exhaustion and demoralization, all of which are clearly eating them already.

We stand with Ukraine.

Reality Bites

 Vladimir Putin, a thoroughly evil dictator ruling "his" country by oppression, threats, censorship, assassinations and incarceration of dissidents, usually comes across as intelligent -- the most scary kind of evil person. However, this time is different. For some reason, he has chosen an impossible lie as motivation for his unprovoked attack and attempted invasion of Ukraine. His claim that Ukraine is ruled by a junta of Nazis committing genocide on the Russian minority of the population is a tough sell, seeing how President Volodymyr Zelenko is a Jewish member of that Russian speaking minority and came to power through a democratic election just a few years ago.

If Putin hasn't lost his mind, he must be truly out of options. For his soldiers on the battlefield, the lie shatters as soon as they meet the fierce resistance from ordinary Ukrainians, and while they are on foreign territory, they can easily check out sources other than Russian state-controlled media and see that the world stands with Ukraine, and that Russia stands alone, with only a hint of weak support coming from China.

Vladimir Putin is not likely to survive this military campaign as the strong leader of Russia. He might not even survive it in the literal sense. One cannot help but wonder if he has decided to go out with a bang as a hero to some delusional people in his fan base rather than see his grip on power slowly slip and eventually fail.