Friday, May 12, 2023

"What was all that back there?"

The Russian front in Bachmut is collapsing, and Russia is rapidly losing the small amount of territory they managed to gain very slowly over the past few months by accepting an insane amount of losses. Now that their brittle line defense is broken and troops are fleeing in panic, Ukraine has retaken a lot of ground. Furthermore, with one flank deeply pierced, the Russian positions are vulnerable.

I don't know if this was a deliberate strategy from Ukraine, but it is brilliant nonetheless. They allowed Russia to make small and slow advances in one strategically unimportant area, at a huge cost in Russian lives and ammunition, and then more or less undid it all in one day with a swift, piercing counter-attack that caught the Wagner Group completely by surprise.

This is demoralizing and humiliating both to the Russian troops, to their commanders, and to the state-level Russian leadership. I am not comfortable with asking for more of this, because it has caused thousands of deaths, but at least it looks like the fierce and bloody battle over Bachmut is finally starting to go the right way.