Boo-fucking-hoo

Sergey Lavrov said to the press after his talk in the UN assembly that "the West is in fact waging a war against Russia, even though they are using Ukrainian hands and bodies".

Well, boo-fucking-hoo. Guess what? When Russia attacked Ukraine, you started an unprovoked war against a friendly, democratic neighbor who had plans to join the EU and take their rightful place among modern, democratic countries. When you try to grab an entire country which simply isn't yours, staging a massacre on defenseless civilians in the process, we take offense.

This is not an internal fight between Russia and a former Soviet state. Russia never moved on from autboritarian rule, but Ukraine did. You decided to make an attack on democracy, on freedom, on progress and on pretty much everything that we believe in. You made it personal. Now suck it up and stop whining. You started this fight, and now you are crying because you didn't understand that Ukraine had friends who would come to their aid? Well, tough luck, but that was your mistake.

No Reserves

Russia is relocating troops from the still active defense of Bachmut to the front around Zaporzhizhia, where their positions are being pummelled by the Ukrainian counter-offensive. This means that Russia has no reserves to fortify at points of attack and replenish their losses. Every soldier they have in active duty is already deployed along the front in the occupied part of Ukraine.

Along with Putin's recent desperate outreach to North Korea, which tells us he is running out of ammunition and has no friends left who can help him in a meaningful way, we are likely watching the last gasp from Russia in the conflict they started. That last gasp might last for a good while and cost far too many more lives, but we are at least getting closer to the end.

Opposite Day

A silly game for children is "opposite day", when you decide that you should say the opposite of what you mean.

This game is useful practice for interpreting anything that Vladimir Putin says these days. His recent comment on the F-16 deals that are being discussed with Ukraine was that

"Supplying F-16 aircraft to Ukraine will only prolong the conflict. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has not made any progress, and Ukrainian military is taking heavy losses. Once Ukraine's resources are depleted, they will want to start peace negotiations."

Translated to its opposite, it makes more sense and connects with reality:

"Supplying F-16 aircraft to Ukraine will end the conflict sooner. The Ukrainian counter-offensive has made significant progress, and the Russian military is taking heavy losses. Once Russia's resources are depleted, we will want to start peace negotiations."

Putin's statements are no longer in touch with reality. One wonders if he knows that, or if his staff and his own megalomania is shielding him from learning what deep shit he is in right now. The fact that he is meeting with Kim Jong-Un about buying weapons from North Korea, a piss poor country with very little real military strength, tells us that at some level he is aware of his dire situation, with ammunition supplies running out and production not being nearly enough to meet demands in his war of aggression.

If his deal goes through, North Korea's ammunition supplies will soon be depleted as well.

Bottom of the Barrel

From the look of it, Putin is now negotiating arms deals with North Korea. North. Korea. Let that sink in. A small, dirt poor country with a stupid megalomaniac anointed "dictator for life" by his father, mismanaging the country and making his people starve to finance a barely functional missile project and to acquire some very limited nuclear weapons capability at an astronomical cost.

If the mighty Russian army is seeking help from North Korea, they are really desperate. The political backlash will be irreparable, and the amount of actual help North Korea can possibly give is so small that it shouldn't even matter to a country many times larger. It is more clear than ever that Putin has almost nothing left: no weapons, no allies, no way out of the mess he put himself into, and no way back into the good graces of the international community. His reign of terror, greed and corruption may well be on its last legs, and he is not invulnerable. His end could come swiftly.

The Dictator is Naked

The fairy tale by Hans Christian Andersen about the Emperor's new clothes is doubly relevant for describing Putin's Russia right now. The story, which you have probably read, is about a king surrounded by yes-men who is so detached from reality, and afraid to look weak in front of his court, that he gets fooled into parading the streets with no clothes on.

Vladimir Putin shielded himself from reality, and paid dearly for it when his insane attack on Ukraine failed miserably and showed everyone that his mighty army can't even win a war against a much smaller neighbor. The emperor is naked in his shame for everyone to see.

However, there is a second meaning to Putin being naked in front of the world. He is no longer able to pretend that he is the democratically elected ruler of a country that can be trusted to play with others in the international economy. The signs of a dictatorship is now showing very clearly: oppression, corruption, state-sponsored terrorism, propaganda composed of nothing but transparent lies, and an ever increasing isolation by pretty much every other country in the world.

The dictatorship of Vladimir Putin, previously disguised by a thin veil of respectability, is now just as naked as he is.

Collapse

Russia is in its death throes. They boast as if they were a force to be reckoned with, both as a player in international economy and in terms of their military power, often conflating the two in a thoroughly disturbing manner. The harsh truth is that they never had a particularly large economy in the first place, and what's left of it is rapidly imploding. What's more, their supposedly mighty army is taking a beating in the war they started against Ukraine, and their forces are now struggling to even make a dent along the new front they opened up in the northeast, in a desperate attempt to retake some initiative in their failed invasion of a friendly, democratic neighboring country.

Russians like to think of themselves as an actor in the global arena, but they are failing miserably to act even locally. Russia is rapidly making itself irrelevant, and the country is heading for decades of isolation as an international pariah, trusted by nobody. Good riddance.

"Just a Flesh Wound"

Putin's recent dismissal of Ukraine's success in their counter-offensive sounded like Monty Python's Black Knight claiming that a dismemberment was "just a flesh wound", and refusing to stand down. Saying that the massive supply of equipment from NATO countries "does not make any real difference" and is little more than a nuisance to the allegedly mighty Russian army is preposterous.

The truth is that Putin's war machine is heavily worn down and is rapidly running low on everything: soldiers, weapons, ammunition, leadership and motivation. They have already lost more tanks than they were estimated to have at the start of the war, and their overall losses are catastrophic.

The Russian air force has lost so many planes and helicopters that they no longer engage in the frontline fighting for fear of losing more planes and pilots than they can withstand. In a situation where their claimed air superiority would make a huge difference, Russian troops receive almost no air support.

With each attack wave from Ukraine, Russian artillery is being destroyed and captured, and ammunition depots are being attacked to deplete their supply of artillery grenades.

While Ukraine is undoubtedly taking significant losses, their fighting spirit remains high. Russian soldiers, who were already badly motivated and prone to deserting, are dying for what they see as a lost cause, and it's taking a huge toll on their morale.

Putin has lost the war. The question now is whether he will realise it, and admit it, and face the consequences, or if he has literally chosen to die on this hill.