Collapse

Russia is in its death throes. They boast as if they were a force to be reckoned with, both as a player in international economy and in terms of their military power, often conflating the two in a thoroughly disturbing manner. The harsh truth is that they never had a particularly large economy in the first place, and what's left of it is rapidly imploding. What's more, their supposedly mighty army is taking a beating in the war they started against Ukraine, and their forces are now struggling to even make a dent along the new front they opened up in the northeast, in a desperate attempt to retake some initiative in their failed invasion of a friendly, democratic neighboring country.

Russians like to think of themselves as an actor in the global arena, but they are failing miserably to act even locally. Russia is rapidly making itself irrelevant, and the country is heading for decades of isolation as an international pariah, trusted by nobody. Good riddance.

"Just a Flesh Wound"

Putin's recent dismissal of Ukraine's success in their counter-offensive sounded like Monty Python's Black Knight claiming that a dismemberment was "just a flesh wound", and refusing to stand down. Saying that the massive supply of equipment from NATO countries "does not make any real difference" and is little more than a nuisance to the allegedly mighty Russian army is preposterous.

The truth is that Putin's war machine is heavily worn down and is rapidly running low on everything: soldiers, weapons, ammunition, leadership and motivation. They have already lost more tanks than they were estimated to have at the start of the war, and their overall losses are catastrophic.

The Russian air force has lost so many planes and helicopters that they no longer engage in the frontline fighting for fear of losing more planes and pilots than they can withstand. In a situation where their claimed air superiority would make a huge difference, Russian troops receive almost no air support.

With each attack wave from Ukraine, Russian artillery is being destroyed and captured, and ammunition depots are being attacked to deplete their supply of artillery grenades.

While Ukraine is undoubtedly taking significant losses, their fighting spirit remains high. Russian soldiers, who were already badly motivated and prone to deserting, are dying for what they see as a lost cause, and it's taking a huge toll on their morale.

Putin has lost the war. The question now is whether he will realise it, and admit it, and face the consequences, or if he has literally chosen to die on this hill.

Sack the Messenger

Ivan Popov, one of the few competent people in the higher ranks of the Russian military command, just lost his job after voicing his criticism of what Putin, Gerasimov and Sjojgu are doing.

When incompetent bosses start sacking underlings who dare call them out on their incompetence, the organisation is destroying itself. The Russian army is most likely not going to last for much longer -- not on the battlefield in Ukraine, and not even as a force to be reckoned with. Putin's stupid war has destroyed his country and made it impossible for Russia to maintain any kind of relevance in the international arena.

Kremlin Bobs

It's becoming more apparent with each passing day that Russia is struggling to defend against the Ukrainian counter-offensive. The intense fighting around Bakhmut, or rather the pile of rubble that used to be Bachmut, now has small patches of territory changing hands several times per day. While this might seem like a repeat of the pointless meat grinder in Verdun during World War I, with countless lives being sacrificed to gain control over a piece of land that has no real strategic value, it's actually more likely a deliberate tactic from Ukraine.

Ukraine's forces are better equipped, better trained, more mobile, and infinitely better motivated. As an engineer, I hesitate to use the word "infinitely", but in this case it's appropriate, because most Russian soldiers have exactly zero motivation, while Ukrainians are fighting to keep their country and their chosen, successful way of life. In fact, many Russian soldiers have less than zero motivation, and are actively looking for ways to get out of the battle without being shot as deserters.

The fighting near Bakhmut is killing people on both sides, and every death in a war is a tragedy, but right now there are far more Russian casualties than Ukrainian. This is also in part due to the rigid and outdated command structure of the Russian army, and incompetent leadership all the way from the top down. Russian lives are being cynically thrown away, with soldiers being treated as expendable cannon fodder. This will only work for a little while before their troops are depleted to the point of being dysfunctional. Reinforcements are no longer available, because Putin has thrown all his remaining resources into the war in Ukraine.

The Russian propaganda machine is working overtime to put a positive spin on current events along the front and on their home turf, but the messaging is becoming more desperate with each day, and the lies are becoming ever more transparent and easily debunked.

Russia's army is obviously taking a heavy beating, but they are standing with a bloody nose trying to claim that everything is fine, and that Russia has nothing to fear. Russia has everything to fear, and their desperation is clear. Medvedev's recent and completely unveiled threat of a nuclear attack is definitely not a sign of Russia doing okay.

Russia is collapsing, under external pressure and from internal strife. Any claims to the contrary are just desperate propaganda from a totalitarian regime that is losing its grip.