Life Expectancy

Today, Jevgenij Prigosjin, the founder of the Wagner Group band of mercenaries, went all in with his confrontation of the Russian government. In a frenzied speech, he said that "those who are denying us ammunition are nothing but traitors, helping the enemy break Russia's back".

Considering that the one who made the decision to stop supplying the Wagner Group with ammunition is probably Putin himself, we should not be surprised if Prigosjin has a fatal accident in the near future. People who oppose Putin seem to run a high risk of falling out of a window or have a sudden heart attack, but with Prigosjin it's more likely that he will be the target of an attack from "one of his own", a government plant in his own ranks who simply shoots him.

Prigosjin was once a very close friend and confidant to Putin, but at this point there is no way back into his grace.

Out of it

Before Russia's war on Ukraine, their propaganda was at least somewhat subtle. Putin's speech today was nothing of the sort. Right from the start there was nothing but obvious and unsubstantiated lies coming from his mouth. It's as if he suddenly decided that his own version of reality is somehow going to be the norm from now on. Nobody in their right mind could possibly believe one word of what he said. It's not just that he was bending the truth and presenting a biased view -- he literally told the opposite of the truth.

What's more, today's speech was a blatant throwback to Soviet showmanship. A staged audience, applause on cue without reason.

Accusing the rest of the world for being Nazis and terrorists intent on destroying Russia is not going to fly. Nevertheless, this is what Putin is attempting right now. He is either out of ideas, or out of his mind. Possibly both.

Götterdämmerung

The infamous Wagner Group, founded by Russian oligarch Jevgenij Prigosjin, seems to have fallen out of grace with Vladimir Putin. Their recruitment of convicts to be used indiscriminately as cannon fodder has been halted, and convicts are now instread recruited into the ranks of the regular Russian army. This might not make much of a difference to the convicts, as they are most likely still going to be sacrificed by the thousands on the battlefield, in a cynical attempt to deplete the Ukrainian ammunition supplies in exchange for Russian lives. However, this will make a difference on the battlefield, to the disadvantage of Russia. For all their evil, the Wagner group has a significantly better track record in the war, because they have a functioning command structure and at least some soldiers who are well trained and reasonably motivated. The regular Russian army is in complete disarray, with incompetent leadership, badly trained, badly equipped and unmotivated personnel, and a long history of rampant corruption.

Russia is losing its grip on Ukraine, and Putin is losing his grip on Russia. It's happening slowly, and far too many more lives will be lost before this war is over, but it's happening, and the reckoning will be harsh. Putin might go down in history not as the leader who made Russia great again, but the leader who acted on his own delusional fantasies and fractured what was still left of the former Soviet federation. He is on a path to basically erase Russia from the map.